NgoSeptemba 18, i-US Federal Reserve ibhengeze i-50-based-point-point-interest rate ephawulekayo, iqalisa ngokusemthethweni umjikelo omtsha wokunciphisa imali kunye nokuphelisa iminyaka emibini yokuqinisa. Eli nyathelo libonisa iinzame ze-Fed zokujongana nemingeni emikhulu ebangelwa ukukhula okucothayo koqoqosho lwase-US.
Ukuvela kolona qoqosho likhulu ehlabathini, naluphi na utshintsho kumgaqo-mali wase-US ngokuqinisekileyo luneziphumo ezifikelela kude kwiimarike zezimali zehlabathi, urhwebo, ukuhamba kwemali kunye namanye amacandelo. I-Fed ayifane isebenzise i-50-base-point cut kwintshukumo enye, ngaphandle kokuba ibona ingozi enkulu.
Ukwehla okuqaphelekayo ngeli xesha kubangele iingxoxo kunye neenkxalabo ngokubanzi malunga nenkangeleko yoqoqosho lwehlabathi, ingakumbi ifuthe lokuthotywa kwesantya kwimigaqo-nkqubo yemali yamanye amazwe kunye neentshukumo zenkunzi. Kulo mxholo untsokothileyo, indlela uqoqosho lwehlabathi - ngakumbi i-China - esabela ngayo kwiziphumo eziqhubekayo iye yaba yindawo ekugxilwe kuyo kwiingxoxo zomgaqo-nkqubo wezoqoqosho ngoku.
Isigqibo se-Fed simele utshintsho oluphangaleleyo olubhekiselele ekuthotyweni kwamaxabiso ngolunye uqoqosho olukhulu (ngaphandle kwaseJapan), ukukhuthaza inkqubo yolungelelwaniso lwehlabathi lokuthomalalisa imali. Kwelinye icala, oku kubonakalisa inkxalabo ekwabelwana ngayo malunga nokucotha kokukhula kwehlabathi, kunye neebhanki ezingoovimba zinciphisa izinga lenzala ukuvuselela umsebenzi wezoqoqosho kunye nokukhuthaza ukusetyenziswa kunye notyalo-mali.
Ukwenziwa lula kwehlabathi kungavelisa iziphumo ezilungileyo nezingalunganga kuqoqosho lwehlabathi. Inzala ephantsi inceda ukuthomalalisa ukudodobala koxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho, ukunciphisa iindleko zokuboleka kweenkampani kunye nokukhuthaza utyalo-mali kunye nokusetyenziswa, ngakumbi kumacandelo afana nezindlu nomhlaba kunye nokuvelisa, athe athintelwa yinzala ephezulu. Nangona kunjalo, ekuhambeni kwexesha, imigaqo-nkqubo enjalo inokunyusa amanqanaba etyala kwaye inyuse umngcipheko weengxaki zemali. Ngaphaya koko, ukuthotywa kwesantya esilungelelanisiweyo kwihlabathi kunokukhokelela ekuthotyweni kwemali ekhuphisanayo, kunye nokuhla kwexabiso ledola yaseMelika kwenze ukuba ezinye izizwe zilandele, oko kunyusa izinga lokuguquguquka.
E-China, ukucuthwa kwesantya se-Fed kunokubangela uxinzelelo kwi-yuan, enokuthi ibe nefuthe elibi kwicandelo le-China lokuthumela ngaphandle. Lo mceli-mngeni wenziwa kukudodobala kokubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi, nto leyo ibeka uxinzelelo olongezelelekileyo lokusebenza kubathengisi bangaphandle baseTshayina. Ngaloo ndlela, ukugcina uzinzo lwezinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-yuan ngelixa kugcinwa ukukhuphisana kwamanye amazwe kuya kuba ngumsebenzi obalulekileyo e-China njengoko ihamba ngokuwa kwi-Fed's move.
Ukucuthwa kwezinga le-Fed kusenokuba nefuthe ekuhambeni kwemali kwaye kubangele ukuguquguquka kwiimarike zezimali zaseTshayina. Amaxabiso asezantsi ase-US anokutsalela ukungena kwemali eyinkunzi kumazwe ngamazwe ukuya eTshayina, ngakumbi kwisitokhwe sayo kunye neemarike zezindlu. Ngexesha elifutshane, oku kungena kunganyusa amaxabiso e-asethi kwaye kukhuthaze ukukhula kwemarike. Nangona kunjalo, umzekelo wembali ubonisa ukuba ukuhamba kwenkunzi kunokuguquguquka kakhulu. Ukuba iimeko zemarike yangaphandle ziyatshintsha, inkunzi inokuphuma ngokukhawuleza, nto leyo ebangela ukuguquguquka okubukhali kwemarike. Ke ngoko, i-China kufuneka ibeke iliso elibukhali kwindlela yokuhamba kwemali, ikhusele imingcipheko enokubakho yemalike kwaye ithintele ukungazinzi kwezemali okubangelwa yintshukumo yemali eqikelelwayo.
Kwangaxeshanye, ukucuthwa kwezinga leFed kunokubeka uxinzelelo koovimba baseTshayina bamanye amazwe kunye norhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe. Idola yaseMelika ebuthathaka yonyusa ukuguquguquka kwempahla yexabiso yedola yase China, nto leyo ebeka imiceli mngeni yokulawula oovimba botshintshiselwano lwangaphandle. Ukongeza, ukwehla kwexabiso ledola kunokuphelisa ukhuphiswano lwe-China lokuthumela ngaphandle, ngakumbi kwimeko yemfuno ebuthathaka yehlabathi. Uxabiso lweyuan luya kucudisa ngakumbi imida yenzuzo yabathengisi bangaphandle baseTshayina. Ngenxa yoko, i-China kuya kufuneka yamkele imigaqo-nkqubo yemali ebhetyebhetye ngakumbi kunye nezicwangciso-qhinga zolawulo lotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle ukuqinisekisa uzinzo kwimarike yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle phakathi kweemeko zoqoqosho eziguqukayo.
Ijongene noxinzelelo lokuguquguquka kwezinga lotshintshiselwano olubangelwa ukuhla kwexabiso ledola, iChina kufuneka ijolise ekugcineni uzinzo ngaphakathi kwenkqubo yemali yamazwe ngamazwe, ukuphepha uxabiso olugqithisileyo lweyuan olunokuthi lujongele ukhuphiswano lokuthumela ngaphandle.
Ngaphezu koko, ekuphenduleni ukuguquguquka okunokubakho kwezoqoqosho kunye nezemali okubangelwa yi-Fed, i-China kufuneka iqinise ngakumbi ulawulo lomngcipheko kwiimarike zezemali kwaye yandise ukwanela kwenkunzi ukunciphisa umngcipheko obangelwa yi-capital flow flows.
Xa ijongene nokungaqiniseki kwentshukumo yenkunzi yehlabathi, iChina kufuneka yandise ubume bayo be-asethi ngokwandisa umlinganiselo wempahla ekumgangatho ophezulu kunye nokunciphisa ukuvezwa kwezo zisemngciphekweni omkhulu, ngaloo ndlela iphucula uzinzo lwenkqubo yayo yezemali. Kwangaxeshanye, iChina kufuneka iqhubeke nokuqhubela phambili ukuthengiswa kweyuan kumazwe ngamazwe, yandise iimarike ezinkulu ezahlukeneyo kunye nentsebenziswano yezemali kwaye ikhulise ilizwi layo kunye nokhuphiswano kulawulo lwemali yehlabathi.
I-China kwakhona kufuneka ngokuthe ngcembe ikhuthaze ukuvela kwezemali kunye nokuguqulwa kweshishini ukwandisa inzuzo kunye nokomelela kwecandelo lezemali. Phakathi kwendlela yehlabathi yokuthomalalisa imali ngendlela elungelelanisiweyo, iimodeli zengeniso esekwe kwinzala yemveli ziya kuba phantsi koxinzelelo. Ke ngoko, amaziko emali aseTshayina kufuneka ajonge ngenkuthalo imithombo emitsha yengeniso-efana nolawulo lobutyebi kunye ne-fintech, ulwahlulo lweshishini kunye nokutsha kwenkonzo - ukomeleza ukukhuphisana ngokubanzi.
Ngokuhambelana nezicwangciso zelizwe, amaziko emali aseTshayina kufuneka abandakanyeke ngokusebenzayo kwiQonga leNtsebenziswano ye-China-Afrika i-Beijing Action Plan (2025-27) kwaye athathe inxaxheba kwintsebenziswano yezemali phantsi kwe-Belt and Road Initiative. Oku kubandakanya ukomelezwa kophando malunga nophuhliso lwamazwe ngamazwe nolwengingqi, ukwenza nzulu intsebenziswano namaziko emali kumazwe ngamazwe kunye nemibutho yezemali yasekhaya kumazwe achaphazelekayo kunye nokuqinisekisa ukufikelela okukhulu kulwazi lwemalike yasekhaya kunye nenkxaso yokwandisa ngobulumko nangokuthe gqolo ukwandisa ukusebenza kwemali kumazwe ngamazwe. Ukuthatha inxaxheba ngenkuthalo kulawulo lwezimali lwehlabathi kunye nokumisela imithetho kuya kwandisa amandla amaziko emali aseTshayina okukhuphisana kumazwe ngamazwe.
Ukucuthwa komlinganiselo wakutsha nje we-Fed kubonisa inqanaba elitsha lokuthomalalisa imali yehlabathi, libonisa amathuba kunye nemingeni kuqoqosho lwehlabathi. Njengelizwe lesibini ngobukhulu kuqoqosho lwehlabathi, i-China kufuneka yamkele izicwangciso zokusabela ezisebenzayo neziguquguqukayo ukuqinisekisa uzinzo nophuhliso oluzinzileyo kobu bume behlabathi buntsonkothileyo. Ngokomeleza ulawulo lomngcipheko, ukuqinisa umgaqo-nkqubo wemali, ukukhuthaza ukutsha kwezemali kunye nokwenza nzulu intsebenziswano yamazwe ngamazwe, i-China inokufumana isiqinisekiso esingakumbi phakathi kweemeko zokungaqiniseki koqoqosho lwehlabathi, ukuqinisekisa ukusebenza ngamandla koqoqosho lwayo kunye nenkqubo yezemali.
Ixesha lokuposa: Oct-08-2024